As far as the UK government is concerned, its backbenchers are \u201cthe most important Members in the House [of Commons]\u201d. This simple insight, from a classic\u00a01976 article\u00a0by the political scientist Anthony King, could not have been demonstrated more clearly during the previous 14 years of Conservative rule.<\/p>\n
While protests from opposition MPs were generally ignored, policy questions from\u00a0housing\u00a0to\u00a0Brexit\u00a0were often dictated by debates within the Conservative<\/a> parliamentary party.<\/p>\n Climate policy<\/a> is no different from any other policy area in this regard. That\u2019s why researchers have started to poll politicians to test their attitudes to the issue in various countries. This has included\u00a0comparing levels of climate concern\u00a0among Finnish citizens and elites, evaluating who Norwegian\u00a0politicians and voters deem responsible\u00a0for tackling climate change<\/a>, and assessing what politicians in the\u00a0US and China\u00a0believe citizens\u2019 views on climate change are.<\/p>\n In\u00a0new research\u00a0I conducted with Alan Wager of the Tony Blair Institute, we used a similar approach to analyse polling of British MPs\u2019 and voters\u2019 attitudes to climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n The polling we used was of MPs in the previous parliament, between 2019 and 2024. Still, there are important insights that help us to understand the MPs in the new parliament, elected in 2024. First, we found that what party they belonged to was important in predicting what MPs would think about climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n Indeed, what party they belonged to was more important in predicting an MP\u2019s views on climate change<\/a> than differences in how they perceived voters\u2019 attitudes to the issue.<\/p>\n Second, we found across several metrics Labour MPs were clearly more \u201cpro-climate\u201d than Conservatives<\/a>. They were more supportive of the UK\u2019s net zero target, more bullish about the benefits of tackling climate change<\/a> and more in favour of some suggested climate policies.<\/p>\n Labour backbenchers will mostly be pro-climate There is already evidence that Labour MPs are more congenial to climate policy than their Conservative predecessors. David Cameron introduced\u00a0planning restrictions on onshore windfarms\u00a0in 2015 in response to a campaign from his backbench Conservative MPs. Since then, Conservative prime ministers and ministers were open to reversing these restrictions at various points, but ultimately did not because of\u00a0continued opposition among Conservative backbenchers.<\/p>\n The new Labour government<\/a> has\u00a0removed these restrictions\u00a0within days with no sign of dissent from their backbenches.<\/p>\n Even where the Conservatives could\u00a0point to progress\u00a0in areas<\/a> of climate policy they sometimes appeared embarrassed to talk about them. This was no doubt partly to avoid aggravating their more anti-net zero<\/a> MPs, including the formal\u00a0Net Zero Scrutiny Group\u00a0(though most of them\u00a0lost their seats at this election).<\/p>\n Expect some local opposition Unions such as the GMB have also been pushing back on the party\u2019s\u00a0plans to curtail oil and gas exploration, and this is a potentially fraught topic for Labour\u2019s\u00a0new Scottish MPs\u00a0to navigate.<\/p>\n Other parties may also exert political pressure on Labour MPs on these issues. There are already signs that some Conservative MPs representing rural seats will campaign against new\u00a0green<\/a> infrastructure\u00a0and\u00a0housing\u00a0in this parliament.<\/p>\n The Liberal Democrats and Labour were in something of an unofficial alliance to remove the Conservatives during the 2024 general election, but the former now represent a swathe of\u00a0seats in well-off towns and leafy suburbs\u00a0where building new energy<\/a> infrastructure will not always be popular.<\/p>\n Similarly, Green party co-leader Adrian Ramsay is the new MP for Waveney Valley, a former Tory safe seat in rural Suffolk. One of his\u00a0first interventions\u00a0was to call<\/a> for a \u201cpause\u201d on plans for new power lines in East Anglia.<\/p>\n Labour will also need to overcome a series of other challenges in order to deliver its climate plans<\/a>. Nonetheless, new\u00a0energy secretary\u00a0Ed Miliband will have much more freedom than his immediate predecessors to pursue ambitious policies<\/a> without sparking rows with his parliamentary colleagues.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Though we cannot be certain, a similar party dynamic will probably be in place in the new parliament. Indeed, several newly elected Labour MPs have a background as\u00a0key figures in the climate<\/a> movement.<\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Specific aspects of Labour\u2019s net zero plans will probably prove controversial even within their parliamentary party. For instance, Labour\u2019s\u00a02030 clean power target\u00a0requires new infrastructure such as turbines and\u00a0pylons, and there are Labour MPs representing more rural seats where that may prove controversial.<\/p>\n