{"id":10427,"date":"2024-10-03T13:13:58","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T10:13:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/?p=10427"},"modified":"2024-10-03T13:13:58","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T10:13:58","slug":"serengeti-and-maasai-mara-face-climate-change-challenges-for-wildlife-and-tourism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/news\/serengeti-and-maasai-mara-face-climate-change-challenges-for-wildlife-and-tourism","title":{"rendered":"Serengeti and Maasai Mara face climate change challenges for wildlife and tourism"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, straddling the border between Kenya and Tanzania, is renowned as one of the most iconic wildlife areas in Africa. This vast expanse encompasses Kenya\u2019s Maasai Mara National Reserve and Tanzania\u2019s Serengeti National Park, together creating a dynamic habitat teeming with biodiversity. Spanning approximately 30,000 square kilometers, the ecosystem is characterized by a rich tapestry of landscapes, including savannahs, grasslands, riverine forests, and acacia woodlands, providing a diverse range of habitats for numerous species.<\/p>\n

One of the defining features of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem<\/a> is the Great Migration, an awe-inspiring natural phenomenon where millions of wildebeest, zebras, and other herbivores undertake a perilous journey in search of fresh grazing grounds. Each year, these animals traverse the plains in a circular route, driven by the seasonal rains and the search for food and water<\/a>. This migration not only showcases the remarkable adaptability<\/a> of these species but also plays a critical role in maintaining the ecological balance of the region. Predators such as lions, leopards, and cheetahs follow closely behind, creating a dramatic interplay between herbivores and carnivores that epitomizes the circle of life.<\/p>\n

The ecosystem is also home to an incredible variety of other wildlife, including elephants, giraffes, hippos, and countless bird species<\/a>. The diverse habitats support a rich avifauna, making it a paradise for birdwatchers. The combination of open grasslands and riverine forests<\/a> creates a unique setting for many species, allowing for intricate interactions and dependencies within the ecosystem. Additionally, the Mara River<\/a> is vital to the survival of many animals, providing water and nourishment while serving as a critical passage during the migration.<\/p>\n

Human communities<\/a>, particularly the Maasai people, have coexisted with the wildlife in this region for generations. Their traditional practices and deep-rooted knowledge of the land contribute to the preservation of this unique ecosystem. However, the increasing pressures of tourism, land use changes, and climate change pose significant challenges<\/a> to the sustainability of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. Conservation efforts are crucial to ensure that this rich natural<\/a> heritage is preserved for future generations while balancing the needs of local communities and wildlife.<\/p>\n

Every year, millions of animals move across the land in search of fresh grass and water, creating an incredible spectacle known as the\u00a0Great Migration<\/a>. This migration sustains hundreds of predators and scavengers like vultures. The wildlife is also important for local governments and communities that rely on funds from tourism and conservation<\/a> efforts.<\/p>\n

All this activity \u2013 the well-being of wildlife, the water they drink and the vegetation<\/a> they feed on \u2013 depends on weather patterns. Extreme weather<\/a> phenomena, therefore, can wreak havoc on the workings of the ecosystem.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m part of a team from the universities of Hohenheim and Groningen, Free University of Berlin, the IUCN<\/a>, the Indian Institute of Management in Udaipur and the Kenya Meteorological Department which has been studying weather patterns in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem since 1913.\u00a0Our new study<\/a>\u00a0has found that it has been experiencing major changes.<\/p>\n

Over the past six decades, rainfall has been above average and there have also been recurrent severe droughts, erratic extremely wet conditions and a temperature rise of 4.8\u00b0C to 5.8\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

These events are having a significant impact on wildlife populations and biodiversity<\/a> in the area. Vegetation and water are gradually drying. Competition between wildlife, livestock and people for resources is increasing. Wildlife numbers are falling and there are changes<\/a> in patterns of migration and breeding.<\/p>\n

Key findings
\n<\/strong>We have found that the Mara-Serengeti is rapidly warming.<\/p>\n

The average monthly<\/a> minimum temperatures (taken in Narok Town, bordering the Maasai Mara ecosystem) between 1960 and 2024 increased significantly \u2013 an overall rise of 5.3\u00b0C. The minimum temperature increased from 7.9\u00b0C in May 1960, reaching 13.2\u00b0C in 2024.<\/p>\n

Rainfall in both the Maasai Mara and Serengeti increased over time. Severe droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. And though extreme floods are relatively rare, they\u2019re also increasing in frequency and intensity over time.<\/p>\n

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Shem C. Kifugo<\/span><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What\u2019s driving these changes
\n<\/strong>By analysing patterns in rainfall and temperature alongside global oceanic and atmospheric climate systems, we connect the weather changes in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem to climate change. The global climate systems\u00a0are changing<\/a>\u00a0due to<\/a>\u00a0global warming.<\/p>\n

Specifically, we examined the Southern Oscillation Index and the Indian Ocean<\/a> Dipole (IOD) between 1913 and 2024. These are the most significant oceanic and atmospheric patterns affecting climate in east Africa<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Southern Oscillation Index measures the difference in air pressure between two places, Tahiti in the South Pacific and Darwin<\/a> in Australia. When the sea<\/a> level pressure difference is big it signals changes \u2013 like El Ni\u00f1o (warm phase of the oscillation) or La Ni\u00f1a (cold phase) \u2013 which can affect weather patterns around the world. El Ni\u00f1o is linked to more rainfall in east Africa<\/a> and La Ni\u00f1a to droughts.<\/p>\n

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a climate pattern which is like a seesaw for the ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean. Sometimes, one side of the ocean near Africa gets warmer, while the side near Indonesia gets cooler. Other times, it flips, with Indonesia being warmer and Africa cooler. This changing pattern affects the weather, causing more rain when the ocean near east Africa<\/a> is warmer and droughts when the ocean is cooler.<\/p>\n

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Our study of the Southern Oscillation Index found that around 1970 the shifts in oceanic and atmospheric conditions that cause El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a were becoming more extreme. As a result, these events \u2013 and the droughts and floods they bring \u2013 are happening more often and with greater intensity.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, between 1913 and 2024, the Indian Ocean Dipole has slowly increased due to steady ocean warming. And there are two repeating cycles that happen every 4.1 and 5.4 years<\/a>. These cycles change in strength and timing<\/a>, but they keep coming back regularly. The\u00a0steady strengthening<\/a>\u00a0of the dipole is\u00a0a sign of<\/a>\u00a0global warming and altered atmospheric circulation. The increased frequency and intensity of dipole events, when there are warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, are linked to more frequent and severe floods and droughts in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem.<\/p>\n

Implications of weather changes
\n<\/strong>The droughts, floods and temperature rise are affecting wildlife populations and biodiversity in the ecosystem.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen this through field observations in annual reports by Kenya\u2019s Game Department and its successor, the Wildlife Conservation and Management Department, and from local district documents in the Kenya National Archives and\u00a0there are also more contemporary observations<\/a>.<\/p>\n

We analysed this observational data<\/a> to identify trends and patterns in wildlife populations over time, and the timing, scale and location of changes. We then linked these to changes in the weather and specific anomalies, such as droughts.<\/p>\n

We also systematically ruled out other potential causes, such as disease<\/a> outbreaks, habitat destruction, pollution or overexploitation, such as through poaching.<\/p>\n

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These are some of the impacts from the ecosystem\u2019s changing<\/a> weather patterns:<\/p>\n