{"id":7861,"date":"2023-08-03T15:07:13","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T12:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/?p=7861"},"modified":"2023-08-03T15:07:15","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T12:07:15","slug":"climate-changes-social-tipping-points-for-better-or-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/news\/climate-changes-social-tipping-points-for-better-or-worse","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change’s Social Tipping Points: For Better or Worse"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s impossible to turn on the TV, listen to the radio or scroll social media without hearing about real-world climate impacts. July is the hottest month on\u00a0record<\/a>. The United Nations has declared an era of\u00a0global boiling<\/a>. Europe and North America are experiencing record-breaking\u00a0heat waves<\/a>\u00a0while Antarctic\u00a0sea ice levels<\/a>\u00a0have fallen to record lows.<\/p>\n

Scientists are concerned that changes such as these are rapid and irreversible. If heating continues, the climate could reach tipping points<\/a>\u00a0and enter\u00a0new, dangerous states<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Such upheaval can also lead to marked changes in society. As our\u00a0new research shows<\/a>, climate change is causing social tipping points: fast, fundamental changes in human values, behaviours, relationships, technologies and\u00a0institutions<\/a>\u00a0that are hard to undo.<\/p>\n

We need to\u00a0use this knowledge<\/a>\u00a0to overcome our long dependency on fossil fuels before climate change causes irreversible social upheavals.<\/p>\n

Social science shows we\u2019re more likely to be concerned about an issue when we have experienced it, such as being directly affected by fires<\/a> or floods. But until then, we\u2019re often unlikely to support policies that may radically change<\/a> everyday life. We can see this in planning for sea-level rise. Coastal communities that have experienced significant coastal erosion are much more supportive<\/a>\u00a0of coastal protection policies than those that haven\u2019t.<\/p>\n

\n
\"black<\/div>\n
When climate-linked disasters strike, we\u2019re more likely to support rapid changes. This photo shows Lyle Stewart at the ruins of his house in New South Wales after Black Summer fires.<\/span>\u00a0Rick Rycroft\/AP<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Understanding social tipping points<\/strong>Studying social tipping points is hard and messy. Humans and our societies are much less predictable than nature. The status quo is very well entrenched and shifts away from it rarely happen without significant pushback.<\/p>\n

But it can happen \u2013\u00a0especially in times of crisis, as the COVID pandemic demonstrated. Three years ago, many of us shifted to working from home \u2013\u00a0and the change<\/a> happened remarkably quickly. Changing back to working in the office every day is turning out to be\u00a0much harder<\/a>\u00a0than first thought.<\/p>\n

Social science tells us natural disasters can provide opportunities for social tipping points<\/a>. That\u2019s because natural disasters can change how we allocate resources and our expectations of what governments<\/a> should do.<\/p>\n

For instance, the devastating earthquakes in Christchurch in 2010 and 2011 drove a new approach to disaster response. The New Zealand government created a recovery agency tasked not only with\u00a0building back better<\/a>, but also making sure\u00a0community wellbeing<\/a>\u00a0was taken into account.<\/p>\n

How can natural disasters cause social tipping points?
\n<\/strong>Our research brought two dozen researchers from diverse disciplines together to debate what social tipping points are and how we can respond to them.<\/p>\n

To understand the issue, we examined a devastating flood in Germany in 2021. Intense rainfall turned the small Ahr River into a torrent with flows rivalling the Rhine. The flooding killed 134 people and destroyed the livelihoods of thousands.<\/p>\n

The disaster was made up to nine times\u00a0more likely<\/a> by climate change because hotter air can hold more moisture to fall as rain.<\/p>\n

We found the chaos and damage had led to social tipping points. Local communities\u00a0called for the right<\/a>\u00a0to rebuild houses on higher ground, which led to proposed changes to national construction laws.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s Black Summer bushfires also demonstrate the link between climate-related disasters and social attitudes.<\/p>\n

Over the\u00a02019\u20132020 summer<\/a>, more than 24 million hectares were burnt, 33 people died, over 3,000 homes were destroyed and an estimated three billion animals were killed.<\/p>\n

It triggered shifts in Australian society, both large and small. For the first time, First Nations\u00a0cultural burning practices<\/a>\u00a0gained real traction as a way to reduce damage from megafires.<\/p>\n

Surveys showed<\/a>\u00a0the impact of the fires on public opinion. People were less satisfied with the direction of the country and had less confidence in the federal government. They were more likely to rate climate change as a potential threat, and were less likely to support new coal mines.<\/p>\n

More broadly, we can see the response to the ozone hole as an example of a positive social tipping point. In the 1970s and 80s, concern about the growing impacts of the ozone hole on human health and the environment resulted<\/a> in deliberate intergovernmental action. Thanks to these efforts, we have seen the size of the ozone hole\u00a0stabilise<\/a>\u00a0and begin to close.<\/p>\n

\n
\"ozone<\/div>\n
Social tipping points can trigger real change<\/a>. The ozone hole will close in around four decades, according to the UN.<\/span>\u00a0NASA\/AP<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

But social tipping points don\u2019t have to be positive. They can be intensely negative. The Syrian civil war which began in 2011 was triggered, in part, from social tensions emerging from intense and\u00a0prolonged droughts<\/a>\u00a0made more likely by climate change. These tensions \u2013\u00a0and their climate drivers \u2013\u00a0haven\u2019t gone away<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What should we take from this?
\n<\/strong>While it\u2019s vitally important to understand climate tipping points, it can be common to focus on them passively \u2013\u00a0as if it\u2019s something that will simply happen without any human agency. But this isn\u2019t how it will play out.<\/p>\n

Our societies and organisations will be forced into change by climate<\/a> disruption, whether for good or ill. We need to understand whether social tipping points triggered by climate change are desirable or not. If they pose major risks, we need to understand what we can do to avoid them.<\/p>\n

We can see this playing out in the Northern Hemisphere. Media coverage tends to focus on the heatwaves and the stark images of tourists trying to\u00a0fight fires<\/a>. But climate<\/a> upheaval will bring much larger changes to our societies.<\/p>\n

It could be more extreme weather<\/a>, intensified natural disasters and melting sea ice force us to act ever more quickly to avert the worst outcomes. But we could also see dangerous social tipping points \u2013 think flows of climate<\/a> refugees leading to anti-immigration sentiment and skepticism of global cooperation. The future isn\u2019t set.<\/p>\n

Read more:\u00a0Tourists flock to the Mediterranean as if the climate crisis isn’t happening. This year’s heat and fire will force change<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s impossible to turn on the TV, listen to the radio or scroll social media without hearing about real-world climate impacts. July is the hottest month on\u00a0record. The United Nations has declared an era of\u00a0global boiling. Europe and North America are experiencing record-breaking\u00a0heat waves\u00a0while Antarctic\u00a0sea ice levels\u00a0have fallen to record lows. Scientists are concerned that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7862,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7861"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7861\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7895,"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7861\/revisions\/7895"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cfwt.sua.ac.tz\/ecosystems\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}